Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 2.136688 2.262552 2.395107 2.545655 2.712567 2.892731 3.102961
2025-06-22 1.927200 2.096921 2.284118 2.507763 2.770202 3.071659 3.449026
2025-06-29 1.785970 1.977416 2.195030 2.464026 2.792448 3.187140 3.708394
2025-07-06 1.672631 1.875900 2.112207 2.412012 2.789597 3.260251 3.910357
2025-07-13 1.621913 1.841941 2.103443 2.443984 2.886763 3.460345 4.292420
2025-07-20 1.582546 1.817373 2.102055 2.481739 2.990355 3.674081 4.715613
2025-07-27 1.550762 1.799045 2.105574 2.523621 3.099794 3.902971 5.188746
2025-08-03 1.499581 1.752959 2.070111 2.510104 3.130141 4.019885 5.503834
2025-08-10 1.452308 1.709156 2.034606 2.493107 3.152466 4.124548 5.810837
2025-08-17 1.404667 1.662515 1.992643 2.463916 3.153711 4.195306 6.068037
2025-08-24 1.360979 1.619081 1.952654 2.434623 3.151682 4.259092 6.320064
2025-08-31 1.331275 1.592710 1.934124 2.434115 3.191849 4.392778 6.720857
2025-09-07 1.310500 1.577965 1.931437 2.457220 3.271489 4.602651 7.316701
2025-09-14 1.270888 1.536488 1.890151 2.421490 3.255991 4.648410 7.586392
2025-09-21 1.232038 1.494703 1.846735 2.380206 3.228388 4.669492 7.806168
2025-09-28 1.192973 1.451416 1.799630 2.331072 3.184656 4.657122 7.948432
2025-10-05 1.181517 1.445506 1.804932 2.361279 3.273291 4.896089 8.732033
2025-10-12 1.172385 1.442332 1.813746 2.396929 3.373217 5.167961 9.678506
2025-10-19 1.164824 1.440958 1.824881 2.436452 3.482482 5.472196 10.819921
2025-10-26 1.142637 1.418254 1.803908 2.423699 3.498044 5.586335 11.453154
2025-11-02 1.120647 1.395201 1.781603 2.407660 3.506358 5.685834 12.077045
2025-11-09 1.096533 1.368490 1.753016 2.380102 3.491657 5.733636 12.549804
2025-11-16 1.073465 1.342721 1.725077 2.352436 3.474993 5.775360 13.020201